BCTrends


	Disclosure Statement

C O N T E N T S

Squawk
Free commentary selected markets.

Products
Analysis services.

Service
Futures brokerage.

RFPosson Co
Description of What's New Section's purpose and contents.

Commodity 1 $10,000 real time performance. 386-785-1585

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-1.4%

+13.3

+13.9

-16.4

-1.5

+4.9

2009

-.5

2010

Stock index- BC3 Busines Cycle 3 -- Tracks the 3yr business cycle in terms of price. Based upon analysis. Not an algorithm. An opinion from CSA models. Does not follow longer terms cycles. Trends may last from a few months to two years.

DOW BC3-- Based upon the Dow Industrials stock index --DOW. Usage- May be used as portfolio risk management strategy when BC3 Dow is bearish. Used as absolute return investment strategy.

Buy Only	No slippage	No fees				BC3	Buy and
Buy	Price	Sell	Price	Points	Return	Return	Hold
1/1991	2627	10/1992	3271	644	25%		alternative
3/1993	3370	6/1994	3624	254	8%
1/1995	3834	7/1996	5654	1820	47%
10/1996	5882	8/1998	8883	3001	51%
1/1999	9201	6/2000	10549	1348	15%
10/2000	10682	3/2001	9654	-1028	-10%
10/2002	7591	4/2004	10357	2766	36%
11/2004	10028	5/2006	11169	1141	11%
11/2006	12168	1/2008	13043	875	7%
12/2008	8827					512%	236%

BC1--A system that was designed from CSA model with model correlation factor (MCF) to the model Level 1 intermediate trend that is intra year and intra 3yr business cycle. Goal is to follow 2 to 3 trends per year. This performance may alter due to change of long term volatility. Trend following in that it does not attempt to pick a top or bottom. Usage- Absolute return investment strategy. Also as a forecast of increased risk for the investor. Tested from 1998 to 4/2007. BC1 was out of the market 25% of the months from 1998-2007 while posting a slightly better return than a buy and hold. This means it was out of the market during the worst of time. Reduced risk. 2008 update- Unprecented volatility since 1980s caused more than normal number of trades per year. Still out performed buy and hold.

BC1
Date	Position	Price	Buy gain/loss	Sell gain/loss	Return
4/5/2007	buy	12560	705
7/27/2007	sell	13265		-113
8/24/2007	buy	13378	144
10/19/2007	sell	13522		151
11/30/2007	buy	13371	-328
1/2/2008	sell	13043		393
1/31/08	buy	12650	-445
3/4/08	sell	12205		-187
3/18/08	buy	12392	87
5/23/08	sell	12479		985
7/18/08	buy	11494	-309
9/4/08	sell	11185		-298
9/19/08	buy	11483	-1112
9/29/08	sell	10371		1060
10/13/08	buy	9311	-734
10/15/08	sell	8577		-398
10/17/08	buy	8975	309
10/21/08	sell	9284		220
10/28/08	buy	9062	-204
11/6/08	sell	8696		-126
11/13/08	buy	8822	-544
11/18/08	sell	8278		-167
11/24/08	buy	8445	30
01/12/09	sell	8475		1250
03/13/09	buy	7225	1115
6/23/09	sell	8340		-244		buy hold
7/15/09	buy	8584	1627			market
1/25/10	sell	10211		-9		comparison
2/16/10	buy	10220

combined	+22%		341/+2%	2517/+20%		-18%


	[Ag Financial Strategies] [About Us] [Products] [Service] [BCTrends]


	Please contact us at AFS with questions or comments. © Copyright 2009 Ag Financial Strategies. All rights reserved.