AFS
Hedge

The following program is offered by Ag Financial Strategies for commission and by RF Posson & Company the CTA (Advisor) for a fee. These are for example only and are hypothetical performance and past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Call us at 1-877-580-2437 for additional explanation and free trial.

Corn Roll Program:  For the corn user.  70% accuracy as for profitable hedges, 30 trades, 21 gains, 9 costs, largest gain 41 cents and largest cost 9 cents, largest cost streak 2, largest gain streak 7, attempts to hedge only when risk is forecast to actually occur, hedges for 2 to 6 of the larger trends per year. Attempts to exit hedge at times that price can trend lower in order to allow for a lower future price, some times there have been left over gains to lower corn cost while corn price is in decline. Limits the amount of capital used to hedge, profitibable 6 out of 6 years 1999-2004 and has consistently out performed an unhedged price and out performed an example of annual forward contract or buy and store program.  Hedges for 2 up to 6 months and for a percentage of usage.

The following are example growers or users using analysis from RF Posson & Company with no defined program.  Results could differ by wide margin on a per user basis.

Corn grower: 2000: 51 cent gain from hedge, 2001 +57, 2002 -35, 2003 +28, 2004 +92, 2005 +28 as of 5/05, can include LDP and for 100% of crop.

Soybean grower: 2000: 176 cents, 2001 +121, 2003 -86, 2004 +68, 2005 +55 as of 5/05, can include LDP and for 100% of crop.

Corn user: 2001 +1.75 cents, 2002: 0, 2003 +2.75, 2004 + 56, 2005 +30 as of 5/05 for 100% of usage.2006 +2.25 as of 5/05 and 2007 +2.

Soymeal user:  2001 +16 dollars, 2002: cash only, 2003 +24, 2004 +80 dollars per ton, 2005 +21 as of 5/05, 2006 +6 as of 5/05 and for 100% of usage.

A gain for these programs means a profit from a hedge which in turns lowers cost if user or increases cash sale price of a producer.

Energy program as for a user of crude oil based energy. 2004 + 12 dollars, 2005 +5 dollars.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT  ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OFHYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICHCAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR

IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE

SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES

BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING

PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE

RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE

BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING

DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL

TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE

IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE,

THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A

PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES

ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE

IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH

CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH

CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR

IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE

SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES

BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING

PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE

RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE

BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING

DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL

TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE

IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE,

THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A

PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES

ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE

IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH

CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH

CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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